Our US Recovery Tracker rose 1.3ppts to 78 in the week ended August 7th – the largest gain since mid-June. Supporting the weekly rise were the first increase in the health tracker since early June and advances in five of the six tracker subcomponents, led by employment and mobility.
While the health situation is gradually improving, it’s far from ideal heading into the fall flu season. The policy impasse regarding an extension of fiscal aid and rising election uncertainty represent key risks for the economy. Long-term optimism regarding a vaccine is secondary to near-term economic and health concerns: a jobs deficit of 13mn relative to pre-Covid, states facing budget crises, and still more than 50,000 daily Covid-19 infections.