Global scenarios service — Trump towers over the global economy

The global economic outlook has shifted markedly in the three months since our last report. While our baseline forecast has changed only modestly, upside risks to growth have increased significantly and we no longer judge risks to be skewed to the downside. As highlighted in the latest Oxford Economics Global Risk Survey, the greatest source of risk is the US policy stance once President-elect Trump takes office.

The report explores these and other key economic risks:

  • US growth surges amid Trump fiscal stimulus
  • Trump presidency weighs on global growth
  • Banks and Brexit hit European activity
  • Tighter policies in China weigh on global growth
  • Secular stagnation
jan17-scenarios.png Download the executive summary.
Read the full report.

Topics: Risk, Global economics, Scenarios