Coronavirus Watch: Upside risks begin to crystallise
News that another Covid vaccine has proven successful in trials has raised the chances of a more rapid lifting of activity restrictions in some advanced economies, and potentially better economic performance from mid-2021.
However, most emerging markets are unlikely to get as quick access to the three most promising vaccines, resulting in slower normalisation.
What’s more, the speed of the rollout of vaccination programs is uncertain. Delays in approval, lower than-expected production levels, and other logistical bottlenecks could all undermine progress. But equally the speedy approval of other vaccines could speed up global inoculation efforts.
We intend to publish updated global economic forecasts that factor in the latest vaccine developments on December 8th 2020.