Recovery from deep global recession could be faster than many forecasters predict, based on our review of historical evidence and different institutions’ economic forecasts.
But the fast-moving nature of the coronavirus crisis is resulting in huge economic uncertainty. In this environment, timely updates to forecasts are essential to reflect emerging news and unpredictable government policy.
Our analysis shows that the current range of global growth forecasts across institutions is very wide. Some estimates published in the first half of March already seem significantly out-of-date; others, based on assumptions that do not apply to the current crisis, appear too extreme.
Our publication of both baseline and alternative baseline forecasts, quantified using the Oxford Global Economic Model, addresses current economic uncertainty. We are continuing to monitor events, and plan to next update our forecasts and scenarios on April 8.