Coronavirus Watch: Three key vaccine uncertainties

Over the past month, we have revised up our global GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 5.2% from 4.9%. We also see a more favourable balance of risks around our forecast. But considering the significant impact of vaccine developments, what might prompt us to become even more optimistic?

The most obvious driver would be the delivery of more doses of vaccine next year, most likely as a result of more vaccines being deemed safe and effective. This would benefit emerging markets in particular.

Another factor could be a faster relaxation of restrictions than we envisage once vaccine rollouts commence. Exit strategies remain unclear, but we assume advanced economies gradually relax restrictions from March/April.

Lastly, the speed at which individuals choose to revert to more normal forms of behaviour will be important. The extent to which vaccines reduce spread of the disease will have a major bearing on this.

Topics: Coronavirus