We estimate world GDP surpassed pre-pandemic levels in Q2. But in recent weeks surging cases of the Delta variant have added to concerns over the...
US | Positioning for rate normalisation
Posted by Javier Corominas on Aug 4, 2021 9:58:00 AM
We see the strong pull back in long-term US yields since the peak of the reflation trade this year as an opportunity to enter new positions that...
Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta dilemmas
Posted by Ben May on Jul 27, 2021 10:42:10 AM
The spread of the Delta coronavirus variant appears to have usurped inflation as the key concern. The Delta strain will lead to a bumpier and more...
US | Where are we in the business cycle?
Posted by Kathy Bostjancic on Jul 27, 2021 10:25:25 AM
Our analysis of key economic indicators suggests on balance the economy is in the mid-cycle phase of the business cycle. We believe the expansion has...
Global | The global housing boom in historical perspective
Posted by Adam Slater on Jul 27, 2021 10:09:30 AM
Our estimates suggest that house prices in advanced economies may be around 10% overvalued versus long-term trends, albeit with considerable...
Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta risks mount
Posted by Ben May on Jul 13, 2021 10:57:30 AM
Concerns within markets about the impact of the Delta variant on the economy is in our view warranted. We have long warned that vaccinations would be...
Global | The slowdown in global liquidity is no cause for alarm
Posted by Tamara Basic Vasiljev on Jul 13, 2021 10:45:15 AM
Although none of the big four central banks have started tapering their QE programmes yet, monetary aggregates are being pinched from different...