US | Where are we in the business cycle?

Posted by Kathy Bostjancic on Jul 27, 2021 10:25:25 AM

Our analysis of key economic indicators suggests on balance the economy is in the mid-cycle phase of the business cycle. We believe the expansion...

Our estimates suggest that house prices in advanced economies may be around 10% overvalued versus long-term trends, albeit with considerable...

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta risks mount

Posted by Ben May on Jul 13, 2021 10:57:30 AM

Concerns within markets about the impact of the Delta variant on the economy is in our view warranted. We have long warned that vaccinations would...

Although none of the big four central banks have started tapering their QE programmes yet, monetary aggregates are being pinched from different...

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Case rates fall globally

Posted by Ben May on Jun 29, 2021 10:28:42 AM

New global cases of Covid-19 have fallen below the March lows and in many advanced economies, rapid vaccination programmes have allowed economies...

A shift to a new policy regime with much higher and more volatile inflation is a possibility that can’t be ignored due to its impact on the...

Global | Holding on to our core convictions

Posted by Javier Corominas on Jun 28, 2021 1:11:57 PM

Despite a flattening of the yield curve and some position squaring of the socalled reflation trade, we believe our key asset allocation themes are...