US | Positioning for rate normalisation

Posted by Javier Corominas on Aug 4, 2021 9:58:00 AM

We see the strong pull back in long-term US yields since the peak of the reflation trade this year as an opportunity to enter new positions that...

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta dilemmas

Posted by Ben May on Jul 27, 2021 10:42:10 AM

The spread of the Delta coronavirus variant appears to have usurped inflation as the key concern. The Delta strain will lead to a bumpier and more...

US | Where are we in the business cycle?

Posted by Kathy Bostjancic on Jul 27, 2021 10:25:25 AM

Our analysis of key economic indicators suggests on balance the economy is in the mid-cycle phase of the business cycle. We believe the expansion...

Our estimates suggest that house prices in advanced economies may be around 10% overvalued versus long-term trends, albeit with considerable...

Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta risks mount

Posted by Ben May on Jul 13, 2021 10:57:30 AM

Concerns within markets about the impact of the Delta variant on the economy is in our view warranted. We have long warned that vaccinations would...

Although none of the big four central banks have started tapering their QE programmes yet, monetary aggregates are being pinched from different...

A shift to a new policy regime with much higher and more volatile inflation is a possibility that can’t be ignored due to its impact on the...