After a weak Q1 for the global economy, our baseline forecast is for a strong growth rebound in Q2, and we remain more optimistic than the...

Global | Coronavirus Watch: The limits of vaccines

Posted by Ben May on May 25, 2021 10:05:22 AM

Vaccines are the key to a safe and permanent transition to more normal conditions. But evidence from economies that already have implemented...

Strong CPI figures in the US have intensified the debate about the inflation outlook, especially in the context of soaring commodity prices. In...

We think that recent inflation surprises are not evidence of a regime shift in price-setting behaviour. But the path for inflation over the next...

Higher headline and core inflation in advanced economies is on the way in H2 as a result of factors including rising commodity prices and...

Global | Coronavirus Watch: When the chips are down

Posted by Ben May on May 5, 2021 10:11:48 AM

A global shortage of semiconductors is the latest hiccup to disturb international supply-chains. In our view, though, the shortage is largely a...

US earnings growth continues to surprise to the upside, with more cyclical sectors leading the way in the Q1 earnings season. This positive...