World GDP to fall 2.8% in 2020, exceeding financial crisis toll
The coronavirus pandemic will lead world GDP to shrink by about 7% in H1 2020, roughly double the scale of contraction seen during the global financial crisis.
For Western economies currently in lockdown we expect restrictions to start to be lifted in Q2, leading to a sharp resurgence in activity in H2. But despite this rebound, we project that world GDP will shrink by 2.8% in 2020 overall – in 2009, the global GDP fall was 1.1%.
The H2 pick-up, followed by a return to more normal conditions next year, will result in world GDP growth rising to almost 6% in 2021. But the severity of the coronavirus shock is likely to lead to a permanent output loss for the global economy.