Gregory Daco

Recent Posts

More than 11 million individuals will lose access to emergency unemployment benefits at the end of next week creating a headwind for personal...

Our US Recovery Tracker rose 1.7ppts to 85.3 in the week ending March 12, a new high one year after the onset of the coronavirus crisis. Health...

The debate around the economy’s need for Biden’s $1.9tn American Rescue Plan (ARP) is heating up. A few prominent economists recently argued that...

A low neutral policy rate with a 1% handle

Posted by Gregory Daco on Jan 18, 2021 10:08:51 AM

What was once considered a floor, may now represent a ceiling for the nominal neutral policy rate (r*). We estimate cyclical and secular factors...

US | Recovery Tracker plateaus in early July

Posted by Gregory Daco on Jul 23, 2020 10:20:56 AM

Our national Recovery Tracker points to a premature plateauing of the recovery. The tracker only rose 0.3ppts to 76.5 in the week ended July 3,...

While the Global Coronavirus Recession is shifting most macroeconomic goal posts in 2020, we reinforce our earlier call for a strong dollar...