Ben May

Recent Posts

A shift to a new policy regime with much higher and more volatile inflation is a possibility that can’t be ignored due to its impact on the...

Global | Turning cautious on GBP

Posted by Ben May on Jun 22, 2021 2:38:01 PM

We believe now is the time to close out our tactical bullish GBP call, initiated in March, as the almost year-long rally in GBP looks increasingly...

Technical factors will push inflation up in the short-term and the fallout from the pandemic will raise inflation risks further out. But on...

The latest US and China inflation numbers have been shrugged off by markets despite being a bit higher than expected. While we still think that...

After a weak Q1 for the global economy, our baseline forecast is for a strong growth rebound in Q2, and we remain more optimistic than the...

Global | Coronavirus Watch: The limits of vaccines

Posted by Ben May on May 25, 2021 10:05:22 AM

Vaccines are the key to a safe and permanent transition to more normal conditions. But evidence from economies that already have implemented...

We think that recent inflation surprises are not evidence of a regime shift in price-setting behaviour. But the path for inflation over the next...