Adam Slater

Recent Posts

We estimate world GDP surpassed pre-pandemic levels in Q2. But in recent weeks surging cases of the Delta variant have added to concerns over the...

Our estimates suggest that house prices in advanced economies may be around 10% overvalued versus long-term trends, albeit with considerable...

Strong CPI figures in the US have intensified the debate about the inflation outlook, especially in the context of soaring commodity prices. In...

Low global bankruptcies mask underlying malaise

Posted by Adam Slater on Feb 8, 2021 2:46:05 PM

Global bankruptcies declined in 2020 despite a sharp fall in world GDP. This unusual development largely reflects successful government...

The scars of Covid-19

Posted by Adam Slater on Jan 26, 2021 10:51:48 AM

The coronavirus crisis is likely to have persistent negative effects on world output. Our baseline forecast already assumes the crisis will cut...

World goods trade recovered strongly in the second half of 2020 and by mid2021 should be expanding at a double-digit annual pace. But the rebound...

Global bank credit standards continued to tighten in Q3 and early Q4, despite a rebound in world GDP in Q3. Although the pace of tightening in the...