A quick rebound holds the key to long-term prospects
The global economy's long-term prospects post-pandemic depend crucially on its performance over the coming year, based on our review of pandemic-hit countries’ recoveries from six major public health crises since the 1960s.
We find evidence of limited scarring when growth had at least returned to trend in the year after outbreaks. These cases typically avoided persistent weakness in investment, employment, and productivity.
However, such a solid near-term recovery is unusual in the aftermath of a pandemic – seen in less than a quarter of our 250+ episodes – and risks to our baseline forecast appear firmly to the downside.