We estimate that Warsaw’s GDP grew by 4.5% a year in the 2010-19 period, so notably faster than its five main rivals among EU accession cities. Drivers include sectoral structure, productivity, skills, and inward investment. But in terms of scale and structure, we do not judge that Warsaw has moved sufficiently ahead of its rivals to create a self-reinforcing circle in which success breeds success, at the expense of the other five. Hence, we forecast a convergence in growth rates.
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