The US Recovery Tracker exited the summer on a bright note. It rose 0.7ppts to 96.7 during the two weeks ended September 3 – the highest reading since late July. Despite downside risks from the Delta variant, the health situation is stabilizing, mobility is nearing its pre-pandemic level, and household spending is steady.
What you will learn:
- Record equity valuations continue to underpin looser financial conditions, but Covid-related supply constraints are limiting production. Employment took a breather on weaker small business payrolls and increased UI benefits searches.
- Regional recoveries stabilized in early September. The South posted its first gain since early July as Delta variant infections fell from their peak.
- New Covid cases remain elevated, but hospitalizations are declining and inoculations are steady at 900k/day. We expect the wider adoption of vaccine mandates following full FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine will support increasing uptake.