United Kingdom | Inflation set to peak higher and remain stickier

We now see UK CPI inflation peaking at 7.5% in April and remaining higher throughout 2022. But inflation should retreat next year, and we see the odds of a scenario where the UK shifts to a higher inflation regime as low.

What you will learn:

The upward revision to our near-term forecast reflects a larger-than-expected rise in the energy price cap, with government support measures failing to mitigate the impact on CPI.
We’ve also raised our estimates for the rest of 2022 because we now anticipate oil and gas prices will remain higher for longer.
The surge in inflation will place the biggest squeeze on household finances in more than a decade.

Topics: United Kingdom, Europe, Economic outlook, Inflation, Scotland, Outlook, Oil and gas, Energy prices, England, Policy, Energy