United Kingdom | High-frequency data show pick-up in activity in March

High-frequency data indicate a broad strengthening in activity since mid February. For Q1, we expect GDP will fall by just 2% q/q, a fraction of the 19% drop seen in Q2 2020, with the risks skewed toward a stronger outcome.

What you will learn:

  • The improvement in mobility has been particularly marked and pre-dates the reopening of schools on March 8.
  • Payments data suggests consumer spending has also firmed, despite restrictions on social consumption remaining in place.
  • This week marked a year since the UK first introduced lockdown restrictions to control the spread of coronavirus. 

Topics: United Kingdom, GDP, Mobility indicators, Lockdown restrictions

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