January inflation surprised on the upside, with the headline rate up to 5.1%, the highest since the 1990s. And while the energy component rose over...
Eurozone | ECB’s hawkish shift paves ground for a possible rate hike
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Feb 4, 2022
The February ECB meeting marked the beginning of a clear hawkish shift in the ECB’s policy outlook. Although the policy stance was left unchanged,...
US | Five crucial questions on the labor market
Posted by Lydia Boussour on Feb 1, 2022
Following a swift recovery, the US labor market is entering a crucial phase and the answers to five key questions will have a major bearing on wage...
United Kingdom | A new era of weaker labour supply growth
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Jan 31, 2022
After a decade of consistently strong growth, UK labour supply has slumped since the onset of the pandemic and we expect only a partial recovery this...
Eurozone | Solid pay rebound won’t trigger a wage-price spiral
Posted by Katharina Koenz on Jan 13, 2022
We expect the solid recovery of the labour market and the lagged impact from the 2021 inflation surge to trigger a sharp pick-up in wage growth in...
Eurozone | Low-flation risks to come back to the fore in late-2022
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Nov 18, 2021
We see little evidence that the outlook for underlying inflation in the eurozone is much changed from a few months ago. In fact, there’s a high...
US | Enhanced benefits aren’t the labor market’s top problem
Posted by Oren Klachkin on Jun 30, 2021
Enhanced US unemployment benefits are discouraging only a small share of unemployed workers from finding jobs. The disincentive to work is greatest...
South Africa | Public sector wage bill set to increase further
Posted by Pieter du Preez on May 30, 2021
The public sector wage bill is one of South Africa’s largest line items on the expenditure side, accounting for roughly one-third of total...
UK | Why strong pay growth isn’t what it seems
Posted by Martin Beck on May 21, 2021
UK wages have recently grown at a pace not seen for over a decade. But rather than a sign of nascent inflationary pressure, changes in the makeup of...