We see China’s economy entering 2022 with weaker growth. Our forecast has GDP growth dipping to 3.6% y/y in Q4 2021. And we expect 5.4% GDP growth in...
US | How the pandemic is reshaping the trade outlook
Posted by Mahir Rasheed on Aug 20, 2021
The fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic will leave a lasting mark on the net trade position of the US. The trade deficit is at record levels...
China | No signs yet of a decoupling from the rest of the world
Posted by Louis Kuijs on Aug 18, 2021
We recently concluded that, judging by China’s export performance in the last two years, there is little evidence so far that developed countries are...
Vietnam | Role as a global manufacturing hub will fuel growth
Posted by Sian Fenner on Apr 13, 2021
Vietnam’s transformation into a global manufacturing hub over the past decade helped it outperform most economies in 2020 and further strengthened...
US | Highest hurdle to a more open trade policy is still China
Posted by James Watson on Feb 8, 2021
The Joe Biden administration faces unresolved trade disputes across the world, but the US-China relationship is the area with the greatest barriers...
China | Biden will shift but not overhaul US policy
Posted by Louis Kuijs on Jan 28, 2021
At the start of Joe Biden’s presidency, attention has turned to the new administration’s likely impact on China via the impact on the US economy and...
Biden unlikely to change US stance on China much | China
Posted by Louis Kuijs on Nov 9, 2020
While a Biden government should mean a less aggressive and more predictable US policy towards China, we don’t think the overall US stance on economic...
China's next decade - decoupling, dual circulation or both? | China
Posted by Louis Kuijs on Oct 7, 2020
China’s economic outlook is challenged by tensions with the US – with the current US government looking to “decouple” from China – as well as, more...
US-China trade ties will remain frayed for some time
Posted by James Watson on Aug 12, 2020
The coronavirus crisis makes it even less likely that China will achieve its trade deal targets for US export purchases. This could further strain...