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The Levelling Up White Paper contains nothing to cause us to revise our forecasts for the UK’s various nations and regions, let alone the UK as a...
Our population projections for the UK now show it declining from the late 2030s, which will impact demand for real estate. As a result, we have...
This week brought a double whammy of bad news for UK consumers. The energy price cap will rise by 54% in April, with the Chancellor offering an...
Alongside its decision to raise rates by 25bps to 0.5%, the MPC today sent an unmistakeably hawkish message, and we now expect further 25bp hikes in...
After a decade of consistently strong growth, UK labour supply has slumped since the onset of the pandemic and we expect only a partial recovery this...
The lifting of Covid restrictions on January 27 adds to hopes that the worst of the pandemic is in the past and should boost consumer sentiment. But...
Whether or not the MPC raises Bank Rate in February is close to a 50:50 call. We marginally favour a hike because Omicron’s economic damage appears...
Though the scale of December’s fall in retail sales came as a nasty surprise, it was not simply an Omicron story. We still think the Omicron hit to...
A strong outturn for November took the output measure of GDP above its pre-pandemic peak. Given GDP is likely to have fallen in December, the...
The hit to UK GDP from Omicron is likely to be much smaller than previous Covid waves and the economy will bounce back quickly after a 0.6% m/m drop...
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