The MPC now thinks CPI inflation could exceed 3% this year, with the risk of an even bigger overshoot of the BoE’s 2% target. However, the...

London’s business activity continued to improve in April, according to the IHS Markit Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), and business confidence...

UK | The recovery rolls on

Posted by Martin Beck on Jun 7, 2021

May’s PMIs delivered a set of record, or near-record, high readings. Whileactivity may not be quite as heated as the surveys suggest, all the...

Though the budget deficit remains very high, monthly borrowing totals haveconsistently undershot the OBR’s forecasts. We expect this to continue...

UK wages have recently grown at a pace not seen for over a decade. But rather than a sign of nascent inflationary pressure, changes in the makeup...

While the economy shrunk in Q1, the fall was smaller than feared. And the quarter ended with evidence of activity building momentum even before a...

Our Oxford Economics Normality Tracker shows that London’s return to “normality” may have slowed recently. But we nevertheless forecast that GVA...

At May’s MPC meeting the committee revised up its forecast for GDP growth in 2021 significantly and laid out its plans to slow the pace of asset...

Recent survey and high-frequency data have boosted hopes that the economy is in the early stages of a strong rebound as lockdown ends. Positively,...

Reflecting recent positive developments, we think the MPC will vote unanimously to keep policy on hold in its May meeting. It will likely also push