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Though the MPC raised Bank Rate for the third successive meeting, March's minutes revealed a clear change in tone. Growing concerns about the...
The last week has delivered little let-up in the energy price-driven supply shock to the UK economy triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine....
Surging energy prices have complicated the MPC's March policy decision. On balance, we still think the committee will raise Bank Rate to 0.75%, but a...
The week’s data showed further evidence of a decent bounce back in activity after the initial emergence of Omicron, and that inflationary pressures...
We expect the UK housing market to remain stuck in a state of high prices-low transactions. Though price growth should cool, a soft landing is more...
The main impact on the UK economy of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to be energy prices staying higher for longer. The UK’s energy price cap...
High inflation in the UK and concerns about the effect of a tight jobs market on wages will likely push the MPC to raise rates to 1.25% by the end of...
We now see UK CPI inflation peaking at 7.5% in April and remaining higher throughout 2022. But inflation should retreat next year, and we see the...
The net economic effect of Omicron – a blow to social consumption but a boost to health output from testing and vaccinations – resulted in only a...
There are two factors explaining this. Omicron stifled activity in December 2021 and the opening part of the new year, leading us to downgrade our...
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