The last week has delivered little let-up in the energy price-driven supply shock to the UK economy triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine....
United Kingdom | While March rate hike remains on table, tone to be cautious
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Mar 10, 2022
Surging energy prices have complicated the MPC's March policy decision. On balance, we still think the committee will raise Bank Rate to 0.75%, but a...
United Kingdom | Rising uncertainty set to limit scale of rate hikes
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Mar 4, 2022
The week’s data showed further evidence of a decent bounce back in activity after the initial emergence of Omicron, and that inflationary pressures...
United Kingdom | Housing market to cool after 2021 boom
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Mar 2, 2022
We expect the UK housing market to remain stuck in a state of high prices-low transactions. Though price growth should cool, a soft landing is more...
United Kingdom | Russian invasion dents near-term growth outlook
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Feb 28, 2022
The main impact on the UK economy of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to be energy prices staying higher for longer. The UK’s energy price cap...
United Kingdom | Dissecting the MPC’s inflation fixation
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Feb 18, 2022
High inflation in the UK and concerns about the effect of a tight jobs market on wages will likely push the MPC to raise rates to 1.25% by the end of...
European Cities | Short-term recovery to be followed by long-term realignments
Posted by Dmitriy Gruzinov on Sep 29, 2021
Despite another shift in the Covid-19 situation across Europe, national governments have largely resisted imposing new lockdowns, and our short-term...
Global | Rising wealth dampens UK and EZ interest rates
Posted by Daniel Harenberg on Sep 1, 2021
Bank of England MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe recently highlighted how the UK’s growing wealth will continue to put a damper on gilt interest rates. Our...