The fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a brief but sharp hit from the Omicron outbreak have prompted us to cut our 2022 mainland GDP growth...
Russia | Market panic has passed, but recession is looming
Posted by Tatiana Orlova on Mar 30, 2022
Russia's GDP is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels until the early 2030s, according to our modelling. We expect Russia's economy to contract by...
Eurozone | Inflation to take a toll on consumer spending growth
Posted by Tomas Dvorak on Mar 29, 2022
Eurozone consumer spending was poised to drive growth in 2022, but increasingly consumers' underpinnings have become shaky. While we still expect a...
Sweden | Fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to be limited
Posted by Daniel Kral on Mar 22, 2022
We have lowered Sweden's growth for this year to 3.1% from 3.6% previously due to the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The main channel...
Eurozone | Markets are at the mercy of war
Posted by Angel Talavera on Mar 18, 2022
The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to dominate headlines and financial markets. The daily news flow coming out of the region is causing...
Global | Russia-Ukraine war adds to the risks facing global real estate
Posted by Christopher Babatope on Mar 18, 2022
The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with downside risks threatening global real estate. In this Research Briefing, we share our baseline...
Europe | Russia's invasion of Ukraine is sending tremors through CEE
Posted by Mateusz Urban on Mar 15, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is being felt throughout the global economy, but few places are as exposed to its impact as the Central and Eastern...
Europe | Tourism effects of Russia's war on Ukraine
Posted by Jack Minchin on Mar 15, 2022
While Ukraine and Russia will suffer significant impacts in terms of inbound travel, there will be immediate and direct impacts across other...
MENA | Commodity price shock is a mixed blessing for MENA
Posted by Maya Senussi on Mar 14, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the evolving global response will be felt in the MENA economies mainly via the impact on commodity prices. Fuel...
Eurozone | EU faces tough trade-offs to phase out Russian gas
Posted by Daniel Kral on Mar 11, 2022
Following Russia's attack on Ukraine, the EU Commission has accelerated plans to phaseout Russian gas, with a two-thirds cut this year. To offset the...