GDP surprised to the upside in Q4 2021 with 1.1% q/q growth, according to the flash estimate. The positive carryover effect has raised our 2022 GDP...
Eurozone weekly economic briefing | Covid risks are out, war risks are in
Posted by Angel Talavera on Feb 18, 2022
The crisis between Russia and Ukraine continues to dominate the headlines. Although we expect the direct economic impact for the eurozone to be...
Finland | 2022 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 2.3% as activity remains solid
Posted by Daniel Kral on Feb 17, 2022
Our forecast for Finland’s GDP growth is 2.3% this year and 1.5% in 2023, both unchanged from last month. The economy grew 0.7% q/q in Q4 2021,...
Eurozone | Limited Ukraine incursion would dampen the recovery
Posted by Innes McFee on Feb 15, 2022
The impact of a “limited” incursion by Russia into Ukraine would deal an unwelcome blow to the European economy via higher inflation squeezing real...
London monitor | London’s economic growth to slow in 2022 as recovery matures
Posted by Richard Holt on Feb 7, 2022
There are two factors explaining this. Omicron stifled activity in December 2021 and the opening part of the new year, leading us to downgrade our...
Eurozone weekly economic briefing | Strong January inflation brings swift ECB hawkish shift
Posted by Nicola Nobile on Feb 4, 2022
January inflation surprised on the upside, with the headline rate up to 5.1%, the highest since the 1990s. And while the energy component rose over...
Eurozone | ECB’s hawkish shift paves ground for a possible rate hike
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Feb 4, 2022
The February ECB meeting marked the beginning of a clear hawkish shift in the ECB’s policy outlook. Although the policy stance was left unchanged,...
Eurozone | Banks dodge Covid bullet, but vulnerabilities remain
Posted by Ricardo Amaro on Feb 1, 2022
The banking sector has proved resilient during the pandemic, and eurozone banks will continue to play a significant role supporting the near-term...
US | Five crucial questions on the labor market
Posted by Lydia Boussour on Feb 1, 2022
Following a swift recovery, the US labor market is entering a crucial phase and the answers to five key questions will have a major bearing on wage...
United Kingdom | A new era of weaker labour supply growth
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Jan 31, 2022
After a decade of consistently strong growth, UK labour supply has slumped since the onset of the pandemic and we expect only a partial recovery this...