A strong outturn for November took the output measure of GDP above its pre-pandemic peak. Given GDP is likely to have fallen in December, the...
United Kingdom | Omicron impact should be fleeting
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Jan 11, 2022
The hit to UK GDP from Omicron is likely to be much smaller than previous Covid waves and the economy will bounce back quickly after a 0.6% m/m drop...
United Kingdom | Positive signs in Q4 look to have proved short-lived
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Jan 7, 2022
That movements in consumer credit and households’ savings in Novemberreturned to levels more akin to pre-Covid norms offered further indication that...
United Kingdom | The wait for decisive news on Omicron goes on
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Dec 23, 2021
Though the government has opted to defer a decision on introducing further restrictions until after Christmas, it seems likely that a mix of greater...
Canada | Recovery continuing despite bumps in the road
Posted by Stephen Adams on Dec 21, 2021
The recovery of Canadian metros is continuing in terms of both GDP and employment. We forecast that GDP in Edmonton and Calgary will grow by more...
China | City growth rates to return to trend—but with some short-term worries
Posted by Scott McEwan on Dec 21, 2021
The short-term outlook for China and its cities has weakened slightly this quarter. New headwinds from the property sector slowdown join the existing...
Global | Key themes 2022: Supply chains to begin normalising
Posted by Kiki Sondh on Dec 20, 2021
Industrial production will lag services growth globally going into 2022 as supply-chain pressures continue to bite and the post-pandemic recovery in...
United Kingdom | Policymakers withhold support as Omicron fears deepen
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Dec 17, 2021
Despite the uncertainty caused by the surge in Omicron cases, the BoE raised interest rates to 0.25% this week. This marks a clear change of tack,...
Eurozone | ECB tapers PEPP purchases but retains flexibility
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Dec 17, 2021
The ECB took significant steps to tighten its highly accommodative policy stance over the course of 2022 on the back of upwardly revised growth and...
United Kingdom | BoE ignores Omicron uncertainty to hike rates
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Dec 16, 2021
Even though Omicron is casting a huge shadow over the UK economy, the BoE today raised Bank Rate to 0.25% signalling a clear change of tack. Shifting...