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Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine was not priced in by markets and has led to spiralling commodity prices, higher risk premia, and strong...
GDP surprised to the upside in Q4 2021 with 1.1% q/q growth, according to the flash estimate. The positive carryover effect has raised our 2022 GDP...
This week brought a double whammy of bad news for UK consumers. The energy price cap will rise by 54% in April, with the Chancellor offering an...
Alongside its decision to raise rates by 25bps to 0.5%, the MPC today sent an unmistakeably hawkish message, and we now expect further 25bp hikes in...
Following a swift recovery, the US labor market is entering a crucial phase and the answers to five key questions will have a major bearing on wage...
After a decade of consistently strong growth, UK labour supply has slumped since the onset of the pandemic and we expect only a partial recovery this...
The lifting of Covid restrictions on January 27 adds to hopes that the worst of the pandemic is in the past and should boost consumer sentiment. But...
Whether or not the MPC raises Bank Rate in February is close to a 50:50 call. We marginally favour a hike because Omicron’s economic damage appears...
Though the scale of December’s fall in retail sales came as a nasty surprise, it was not simply an Omicron story. We still think the Omicron hit to...
We’ve lowered our 2022 Danish GDP forecast 0.1ppt to 3%, with the Omicron variant expected to slow activity in Q1. But the economy should make up the...
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