Though the MPC raised Bank Rate for the third successive meeting, March's minutes revealed a clear change in tone. Growing concerns about the...
United Kingdom | While March rate hike remains on table, tone to be cautious
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Mar 10, 2022
Surging energy prices have complicated the MPC's March policy decision. On balance, we still think the committee will raise Bank Rate to 0.75%, but a...
United Kingdom | Rising uncertainty set to limit scale of rate hikes
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Mar 4, 2022
The week’s data showed further evidence of a decent bounce back in activity after the initial emergence of Omicron, and that inflationary pressures...
United Kingdom | Housing market to cool after 2021 boom
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Mar 2, 2022
We expect the UK housing market to remain stuck in a state of high prices-low transactions. Though price growth should cool, a soft landing is more...
United Kingdom | Russian invasion dents near-term growth outlook
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Feb 28, 2022
The main impact on the UK economy of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to be energy prices staying higher for longer. The UK’s energy price cap...
United Kingdom | Dissecting the MPC’s inflation fixation
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Feb 18, 2022
High inflation in the UK and concerns about the effect of a tight jobs market on wages will likely push the MPC to raise rates to 1.25% by the end of...
United Kingdom | The squeeze on household finances intensifies
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Feb 4, 2022
This week brought a double whammy of bad news for UK consumers. The energy price cap will rise by 54% in April, with the Chancellor offering an...
United Kingdom | Hawkish MPC signals aggressive pace of rate hikes
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Feb 3, 2022
Alongside its decision to raise rates by 25bps to 0.5%, the MPC today sent an unmistakeably hawkish message, and we now expect further 25bp hikes in...
United Kingdom | A February rate hike is on a knife-edge
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Jan 27, 2022
Whether or not the MPC raises Bank Rate in February is close to a 50:50 call. We marginally favour a hike because Omicron’s economic damage appears...
United Kingdom | BoE ignores Omicron uncertainty to hike rates
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Dec 16, 2021
Even though Omicron is casting a huge shadow over the UK economy, the BoE today raised Bank Rate to 0.25% signalling a clear change of tack. Shifting...