The Midwest and South are leading the surge in inflation nationally. While US CPI inflation averaged 6.7% y/y in Q4 2021, regional prices were up...
US | Supply chains started the new year under duress
Posted by Oren Klachkin on Feb 4, 2022
Our US supply-chain stress tracker suggests 2022 commenced with continuing pressures. Transportation channels remained strained in January, and...
United Kingdom | The squeeze on household finances intensifies
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Feb 4, 2022
This week brought a double whammy of bad news for UK consumers. The energy price cap will rise by 54% in April, with the Chancellor offering an...
United Kingdom | Hawkish MPC signals aggressive pace of rate hikes
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Feb 3, 2022
Alongside its decision to raise rates by 25bps to 0.5%, the MPC today sent an unmistakeably hawkish message, and we now expect further 25bp hikes in...
US | Five crucial questions on the labor market
Posted by Lydia Boussour on Feb 1, 2022
Following a swift recovery, the US labor market is entering a crucial phase and the answers to five key questions will have a major bearing on wage...
United Kingdom | A new era of weaker labour supply growth
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Jan 31, 2022
After a decade of consistently strong growth, UK labour supply has slumped since the onset of the pandemic and we expect only a partial recovery this...
Middle Eastern Cities: The long-term outlook
Posted by George Bowen on Jan 31, 2022
In 2021, there were 16 Urban Economic Powerhouses in the world (cities with GDP greater than $500bn), but none were located in the Middle East. By...
Global | Rising risk of a higher inflation regime
Posted by Adam Slater on Jan 27, 2022
The risk of a shift to a higher inflation regime in advanced economies has risen in the last six months, but markets may be under-pricing the risk in...
United Kingdom | A February rate hike is on a knife-edge
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Jan 27, 2022
Whether or not the MPC raises Bank Rate in February is close to a 50:50 call. We marginally favour a hike because Omicron’s economic damage appears...
Eurozone | Recovery Tracker gains ground after a holiday dip
Posted by Daniela Ordonez on Jan 25, 2022
Our eurozone Recovery Tracker rose 1.4pts to 80.3 in the two weeks ending January 9. We view the reading with a bit of caution, as it may reflect a...