The fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a brief but sharp hit from the Omicron outbreak have prompted us to cut our 2022 mainland GDP growth...
Russia | Market panic has passed, but recession is looming
Posted by Tatiana Orlova on Mar 30, 2022
Russia's GDP is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels until the early 2030s, according to our modelling. We expect Russia's economy to contract by...
Eurozone | Inflation to take a toll on consumer spending growth
Posted by Tomas Dvorak on Mar 29, 2022
Eurozone consumer spending was poised to drive growth in 2022, but increasingly consumers' underpinnings have become shaky. While we still expect a...
Sweden | Fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to be limited
Posted by Daniel Kral on Mar 22, 2022
We have lowered Sweden's growth for this year to 3.1% from 3.6% previously due to the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The main channel...
Eurozone | Markets are at the mercy of war
Posted by Angel Talavera on Mar 18, 2022
The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to dominate headlines and financial markets. The daily news flow coming out of the region is causing...
United Kingdom | MPC's dovish hike starts to rein in market expectations
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Mar 18, 2022
Though the MPC raised Bank Rate for the third successive meeting, March's minutes revealed a clear change in tone. Growing concerns about the...
MENA | Growth prospects remain robust as GCC embraces rate hikes
Posted by Maya Senussi on Mar 17, 2022
The GCC countries have entered a period of higher interest rates - their US$ currency pegs mean regional central banks mirror US Fed hikes. Our...
Europe | Russia's invasion of Ukraine is sending tremors through CEE
Posted by Mateusz Urban on Mar 15, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is being felt throughout the global economy, but few places are as exposed to its impact as the Central and Eastern...
Eurozone | There are several dovish caveats to ECB's faster QE tapering
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Mar 11, 2022
Despite the economic headwinds and much increased uncertainty stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine the ECB decided to accelerate its QE exit...
United Kingdom | The supply shock continues
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Mar 11, 2022
The last week has delivered little let-up in the energy price-driven supply shock to the UK economy triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine....