The net economic effect of Omicron – a blow to social consumption but a boost to health output from testing and vaccinations – resulted in only a...
The Levelling Up White Paper contains nothing to cause us to revise our forecasts for the UK’s various nations and regions, let alone the UK as a...
Portugal | Costa’s election win offers hope for political stability
Posted by Ricardo Amaro on Feb 1, 2022
Yesterday’s unexpected majority win for the Socialist Party paves the way for greater political stability in Portugal. This will simplify the...
Germany | New coalition aims to modernize with limited fiscal boost
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Nov 25, 2021
The SPD, FDP and Green party have struck a deal to form the next German government, which should be in power by early-December. A first reading of...
Chile | Voters face most momentous election in a generation
Posted by Felipe Camargo on Nov 22, 2021
Chileans go to the polls on November 21, in a polarised election that will decide its full lower house, more than half of the senate, and new...
Italy | Draghi effect cannot last forever
Posted by Nicola Nobile on Nov 5, 2021
We remain sceptical that Draghi’s reform agenda will be fully delivered and consider a long-term improvement in Italy’s economic prospects as an...
Portugal | Messy politics will dent 2022 growth
Posted by Ricardo Amaro on Nov 5, 2021
Political turmoil in Portugal will delay the execution of some EU recovery funding and freeze key stimulus measures planned for next year....
Poland | Quantifying the costs of a prolonged clash with the EU
Posted by Mateusz Urban on Oct 22, 2021
The recent escalation of the conflict between Poland and the European Union has significantly increased the odds of a decisive response from the EU....
Germany | Inconclusive election triggers long-lasting horse-trading
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Sep 27, 2021
The federal election has seen a further fragmentation of the vote, which has left Germany with an inconclusive result. A protracted government...
China | Evergrande's restructuring is key to containing damage
Posted by Tommy Wu on Sep 21, 2021
The Evergrande saga has shone a spotlight on the Chinese real estate sector. News that the company may miss loan repayments and have to restructure...