The role of the RMB is greatest where China is a major destination for manufacturing exports, suggesting that the degree of trade integration with...

Our new supply-chain stress indicator reveals the US economy faces escalating supply-side challenges. Transportation logjams are the greatest...

Our ASEAN-6 growth tracker, which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam, points to a weak start to Q3....

The fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic will leave a lasting mark on the net trade position of the US. The trade deficit is at record...

We recently concluded that, judging by China’s export performance in the last two years, there is little evidence so far that developed countries...

Recovering consumer demand has clashed with supply constraints, causing inventories relative to demand to fall in several industries, such as...

We now expect the long-run nominal neutral policy rate – i.e., the rate at which the economy is in equilibrium and monetary policy fully...

Following record declines in 2020, we forecast strong 6.1% pa APAC GDP growth over the next two years. Nonetheless, the permanent loss in output...

Export prices have surged over the past 9 months, driven by record high iron ore prices. This has driven the terms of trade to its highest level...

World trade is staging an impressive recovery and so are ASEAN’s exports. We forecast exports will make a positive contribution to headline growth...