Russia's GDP is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels until the early 2030s, according to our modelling. We expect Russia's economy to contract by...
Eurozone | Inflation to take a toll on consumer spending growth
Posted by Tomas Dvorak on Mar 29, 2022
Eurozone consumer spending was poised to drive growth in 2022, but increasingly consumers' underpinnings have become shaky. While we still expect a...
Eurozone | Markets are at the mercy of war
Posted by Angel Talavera on Mar 18, 2022
The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to dominate headlines and financial markets. The daily news flow coming out of the region is causing...
United Kingdom | MPC's dovish hike starts to rein in market expectations
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Mar 18, 2022
Though the MPC raised Bank Rate for the third successive meeting, March's minutes revealed a clear change in tone. Growing concerns about the...
MENA | Growth prospects remain robust as GCC embraces rate hikes
Posted by Maya Senussi on Mar 17, 2022
The GCC countries have entered a period of higher interest rates - their US$ currency pegs mean regional central banks mirror US Fed hikes. Our...
Europe | Russia's invasion of Ukraine is sending tremors through CEE
Posted by Mateusz Urban on Mar 15, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is being felt throughout the global economy, but few places are as exposed to its impact as the Central and Eastern...
Global Scenarios: The risk outlook post-invasion
Posted by Oxford Economics on Mar 14, 2022
The global economic outlook has deteriorated in the last quarter.
As a result, we have revised down our baseline forecast for world GDP, particularly...
Global | Climate change and the economic impact of extreme weather
Posted by James Nixon on Mar 14, 2022
From a climate change perspective, 2021 was another remarkable year. While not the warmest year on record, a host of extreme weather events and...
MENA | Commodity price shock is a mixed blessing for MENA
Posted by Maya Senussi on Mar 14, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the evolving global response will be felt in the MENA economies mainly via the impact on commodity prices. Fuel...
Eurozone | EU faces tough trade-offs to phase out Russian gas
Posted by Daniel Kral on Mar 11, 2022
Following Russia's attack on Ukraine, the EU Commission has accelerated plans to phaseout Russian gas, with a two-thirds cut this year. To offset the...