Our Watchlist 2022 looks at developments that could potentially become the main African themes of next year. We look at the potential of a unilateral...
Canada | Can households handle higher interest rates?
Posted by Tony Stillo on Dec 8, 2021
Canada entered the pandemic with historically elevated household debt, and a C$193bn surge in mortgage borrowing during the pandemic has raised...
Africa | Country Economic Forecast Ethiopia
Posted by Irmgard Erasmus on Nov 19, 2021
Ethiopia has declared a state of emergency as the government confronts an amalgamation of forces from the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and...
US | It ain’t stagflation, but it sure is “M.E.S.S.I.”
Posted by Gregory Daco on Oct 15, 2021
It’s not runaway inflation, and it’s certainly not stagflation. In fact, the US economy is going through a bout of “M.E.S.S.I.” inflation dynamics –...
Africa | Pandemic-era debt: short-term outlook and implications
Posted by Irmgard Erasmus on Oct 14, 2021
Necessity and opportunity allowed African issuers to expand their public debt positions markedly since the Covid-19 pandemic hit. The sharp...
Global | Evergrande matters, but it’s not a ‘Lehman moment’
Posted by Adam Slater on Oct 1, 2021
While the potential collapse of Chinese property firm Evergrande matters, it doesn’t signal a ‘Lehman moment’ that might spark global financial...
LATAM | Five themes that will shape the region’s outlook in 2022
Posted by Marcos Casarin on Sep 21, 2021
We expect Latin America to return to low trend growth in 2022, as policysupport is withdrawn and the easy gains from the reopening fade. LatAm’s...
China | Evergrande's restructuring is key to containing damage
Posted by Tommy Wu on Sep 21, 2021
The Evergrande saga has shone a spotlight on the Chinese real estate sector. News that the company may miss loan repayments and have to restructure...
US | Jackson Hole memo: Don't fear the taper
Posted by Javier Corominas on Sep 3, 2021
Powell’s speech did not materially alter the outlook for Fed policy, but it did clarify the distinction between the timing of tapering and rates...
Global | Rising wealth dampens UK and EZ interest rates
Posted by Daniel Harenberg on Sep 1, 2021
Bank of England MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe recently highlighted how the UK’s growing wealth will continue to put a damper on gilt interest rates. Our...