The US economy is past its peak, but that doesn’t mean the recovery is headed into reverse. While a deteriorated health situation and lingering...
US | Bond investors waiting for Fed help are waiting for Godot
Posted by Gregory Daco on Mar 24, 2021
The sharp rise in long-term Treasury bond yields has led to widespreadspeculation that the Federal Reserve will intervene to tamp down long-term...
US | Fed needs to calm impatient markets
Posted by Kathy Bostjancic on Mar 2, 2021
To slow the rise in bond yields and tamp down on accelerated expectations for an increase in official interest rates, we think Fed officials will...
US | FOMC Preview: Maintaining a steady course
Posted by Kathy Bostjancic on Jan 22, 2021
The focus of next week’s FOMC policy meeting will be Chairman Powell’s press conference. We look for Powell to present a more optimistic, but still...
US | A low US neutral policy rate with a 1% handle
Posted by Oxford Economics on Jan 6, 2021
What was once considered a floor, may now represent a ceiling for the US nominal neutral policy rate. We estimate cyclical and secular factors have...
North America | Key themes 2021: North America looks to a brighter future
Posted by Gregory Daco on Dec 10, 2020
Control over the virus will determine the economic outlook in 2021. While it’s been a long and tiresome year, a brighter future is within reach if we...
US | Entering troubled policy waters
Posted by Oxford Economics on Sep 25, 2020
Last week, the Fed made clear that it would do its part to support the economy for the long haul, providing powerful dovish forward guidance. This...
US | Chartbook - September 2020
Posted by Oxford Economics on Sep 21, 2020
The economic recovery is well underway, but its speed and durability are now in question. Fiscal aid is dwindling, flu season is fast approaching,...
US | Fading federal pandemic support is hurting households
Posted by Oxford Economics on Aug 26, 2020
Payments for unemployment benefits will fall sharply in August, rebound in September but drop again in October in the absence of a new coronavirus...
US | Chartbook - August 2020
Posted by Oxford Economics on Aug 21, 2020
The US economy is at a critical juncture in its recovery. Importantly, after a rapid first phase of recovery, the economy has now entered the second...