The GCC countries have entered a period of higher interest rates - their US$ currency pegs mean regional central banks mirror US Fed hikes. Our...
Europe | NBP hikes rates amid falling PLN and higher inflation prospects
Posted by Mateusz Urban on Mar 9, 2022
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) hiked its policy rate by 75bps at yesterday's meeting, bringing it to 3.5%. Although a continuation of monetary...
China | CNY will benefit from its safe haven status
Posted by Tommy Wu on Mar 1, 2022
The renminbi (CNY) has demonstrated its resilience to global market volatility in recent months, holding steady against the US dollar and other...
Norway | Omicron's impact on the 2022 growth outlook appears to be mild
Posted by Rory Fennessy on Jan 28, 2022
We have lowered our mainland 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 4.2% to reflect the economic impact of the Omicron outbreak at the start of the...
Global | Russia-Ukraine tensions: Asset market scenarios
Posted by Tatiana Orlova on Jan 27, 2022
Despite tensions continuing to ratchet higher, on a medium term view we think the balance of probabilities implies a buying opportunity for affected...
Russia | Geneva stalemate isn’t an endgame
Posted by Tatiana Orlova on Jan 14, 2022
This week’s talks between Russia, on one side, and on the other the US, NATO and the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), have...
Poland | NBP reaffirms its hawkish turn
Posted by Mateusz Urban on Nov 4, 2021
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) hiked its policy rate by 75bps to 1.25% at yesterday’s meeting. Although some tightening was expected, the...
Poland | Quantifying the costs of a prolonged clash with the EU
Posted by Mateusz Urban on Oct 22, 2021
The recent escalation of the conflict between Poland and the European Union has significantly increased the odds of a decisive response from the EU....
Global | A framework for evaluating EM currencies’ fair value
Posted by Felipe Camargo on Aug 27, 2021
In our recent extended panel assessment on EM FX, we found most currencies have yet to recover ‘fair value’ after the March 2020 overshooting event....
Indonesia | Why the rupiah slide won’t turn into a freefall
Posted by Sung Eun Jung on Apr 20, 2021
Asian currencies have broadly struggled in recent months due to the strengthening of the US dollar on the back of favorable growth and rate...