Russia's GDP is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels until the early 2030s, according to our modelling. We expect Russia's economy to contract by...
Eurozone | EU faces tough trade-offs to phase out Russian gas
Posted by Daniel Kral on Mar 11, 2022
Following Russia's attack on Ukraine, the EU Commission has accelerated plans to phaseout Russian gas, with a two-thirds cut this year. To offset the...
Eurozone | Limited Ukraine incursion would dampen the recovery
Posted by Innes McFee on Feb 15, 2022
The impact of a “limited” incursion by Russia into Ukraine would deal an unwelcome blow to the European economy via higher inflation squeezing real...
Italy | Rising sovereign yields will not derail debt dynamics
Posted by Nicola Nobile on Feb 15, 2022
The ECB's unexpectedly hawkish shift tone prompted a sizeable market reaction, with Italian 10-year bond yields rising 55bps, to 1.95%. However, we...
Eurozone | When forward guidance blurs guidance
Posted by Daniela Ordonez on Feb 14, 2022
In a week with few economic data releases, the latest ECB communicationsturned the week tumultuous. It appears that worries about inflation have...
Eurozone | Energy price spike means “higher for longer” inflation
Posted by Angel Talavera on Feb 11, 2022
Persistently high energy prices will cause eurozone inflation to be higher forlonger than we previously anticipated. Our new forecast envisions...
The Levelling Up White Paper contains nothing to cause us to revise our forecasts for the UK’s various nations and regions, let alone the UK as a...
Eurozone | Energy tensions will keep inflation high
Posted by Angel Talavera on Jan 28, 2022
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to put pressure on energyprices, which remain at extremely high levels. Barring a quick resolution of...
Global | Russia-Ukraine tensions: Asset market scenarios
Posted by Tatiana Orlova on Jan 27, 2022
Despite tensions continuing to ratchet higher, on a medium term view we think the balance of probabilities implies a buying opportunity for affected...
Eurozone | Recovery Tracker gains ground after a holiday dip
Posted by Daniela Ordonez on Jan 25, 2022
Our eurozone Recovery Tracker rose 1.4pts to 80.3 in the two weeks ending January 9. We view the reading with a bit of caution, as it may reflect a...