Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means that the economic impact of the conflict on Europe will be larger than we previously assumed. Our new baseline sees
Global | Russia invades Ukraine, damaging the global economy
Posted by Tatiana Orlova on Feb 24, 2022
Due to events over the past 24 hours, with Russia now intent on installing a “friendly” government in Ukraine, we have moved our global baseline in...
Sweden | 2022 GDP growth forecast raised, but high inflation is a key downside risk
Posted by Daniel Kral on Feb 24, 2022
We have raised our full year 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.6% from 3.3% previously, due to the especially strong flash estimate for Q4 2021. The...
Eurozone | How the clash with Russia will affect Europe’s economy
Posted by Angel Talavera on Feb 23, 2022
The escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict will hit the eurozone economy mainly via higher energy prices giving another spur to inflation, which...
Russia and Ukraine | Recognition of rebel states won’t trigger harsh sanctions
Posted by Tatiana Orlova on Feb 22, 2022
On Monday 21 February, separatist leaders of the so-called Donetsk andLuhansk People’s Republics (LNR and DNR) called on Russia’s PresidentVladimir...
Denmark | High inflation becomes main downside risk to our 2022 outlook
Posted by Rory Fennessy on Feb 18, 2022
GDP surprised to the upside in Q4 2021 with 1.1% q/q growth, according to the flash estimate. The positive carryover effect has raised our 2022 GDP...
United Kingdom | Dissecting the MPC’s inflation fixation
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Feb 18, 2022
High inflation in the UK and concerns about the effect of a tight jobs market on wages will likely push the MPC to raise rates to 1.25% by the end of...
Eurozone weekly economic briefing | Covid risks are out, war risks are in
Posted by Angel Talavera on Feb 18, 2022
The crisis between Russia and Ukraine continues to dominate the headlines. Although we expect the direct economic impact for the eurozone to be...
Finland | 2022 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 2.3% as activity remains solid
Posted by Daniel Kral on Feb 17, 2022
Our forecast for Finland’s GDP growth is 2.3% this year and 1.5% in 2023, both unchanged from last month. The economy grew 0.7% q/q in Q4 2021,...
Eurozone | Limited Ukraine incursion would dampen the recovery
Posted by Innes McFee on Feb 15, 2022
The impact of a “limited” incursion by Russia into Ukraine would deal an unwelcome blow to the European economy via higher inflation squeezing real...