The last week has delivered little let-up in the energy price-driven supply shock to the UK economy triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine....
United Kingdom | While March rate hike remains on table, tone to be cautious
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Mar 10, 2022
Surging energy prices have complicated the MPC's March policy decision. On balance, we still think the committee will raise Bank Rate to 0.75%, but a...
Europe | NBP hikes rates amid falling PLN and higher inflation prospects
Posted by Mateusz Urban on Mar 9, 2022
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) hiked its policy rate by 75bps at yesterday's meeting, bringing it to 3.5%. Although a continuation of monetary...
Eurozone | Durable goods will turn deflationary only in 2023
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Mar 7, 2022
Up until recently there had been growing signs that the forces that lifted durable goods prices last year had begun weakening or even reversing. But...
United Kingdom | Rising uncertainty set to limit scale of rate hikes
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Mar 4, 2022
The week’s data showed further evidence of a decent bounce back in activity after the initial emergence of Omicron, and that inflationary pressures...
United Kingdom | Housing market to cool after 2021 boom
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Mar 2, 2022
We expect the UK housing market to remain stuck in a state of high prices-low transactions. Though price growth should cool, a soft landing is more...
Eurozone | A change of fortune across EU industries looms
Posted by Daniel Kral on Mar 1, 2022
Industrial performance across Europe has varied widely in the wake of the pandemic. The main laggards, Germany and France, have shaped the overall...
Russia | CBR’s huge rate hike unlikely to restore financial stability
Posted by Tatiana Orlova on Mar 1, 2022
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US and EU announced harsh new sanctions, including banning some Russian banks from SWIFT and freezing the...
United Kingdom | Russian invasion dents near-term growth outlook
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Feb 28, 2022
The main impact on the UK economy of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to be energy prices staying higher for longer. The UK’s energy price cap...
Turkey | Outlook sours after Russia invades Ukraine
Posted by Maya Senussi on Feb 25, 2022
Turkey will take a hit from the Russian invasion of Ukraine through three main channels – tourism, energy prices and financial market disruption –...