Despite the economic headwinds and much increased uncertainty stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine the ECB decided to accelerate its QE exit...
Eurozone | Limited Ukraine incursion would dampen the recovery
Posted by Innes McFee on Feb 15, 2022
The impact of a “limited” incursion by Russia into Ukraine would deal an unwelcome blow to the European economy via higher inflation squeezing real...
Italy | Rising sovereign yields will not derail debt dynamics
Posted by Nicola Nobile on Feb 15, 2022
The ECB's unexpectedly hawkish shift tone prompted a sizeable market reaction, with Italian 10-year bond yields rising 55bps, to 1.95%. However, we...
Eurozone | When forward guidance blurs guidance
Posted by Daniela Ordonez on Feb 14, 2022
In a week with few economic data releases, the latest ECB communicationsturned the week tumultuous. It appears that worries about inflation have...
Eurozone | Energy price spike means “higher for longer” inflation
Posted by Angel Talavera on Feb 11, 2022
Persistently high energy prices will cause eurozone inflation to be higher forlonger than we previously anticipated. Our new forecast envisions...
Eurozone weekly economic briefing | Strong January inflation brings swift ECB hawkish shift
Posted by Nicola Nobile on Feb 4, 2022
January inflation surprised on the upside, with the headline rate up to 5.1%, the highest since the 1990s. And while the energy component rose over...
Eurozone | ECB’s hawkish shift paves ground for a possible rate hike
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Feb 4, 2022
The February ECB meeting marked the beginning of a clear hawkish shift in the ECB’s policy outlook. Although the policy stance was left unchanged,...
Eurozone | Banks dodge Covid bullet, but vulnerabilities remain
Posted by Ricardo Amaro on Feb 1, 2022
The banking sector has proved resilient during the pandemic, and eurozone banks will continue to play a significant role supporting the near-term...
Eurozone | ECB Watch – inflation risks will dominate ECB meeting
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Jan 31, 2022
Inflation prospects will again dominate the upcoming ECB meeting. We do not expect any clear policy signals or decisions given that the council made...
Eurozone | Energy tensions will keep inflation high
Posted by Angel Talavera on Jan 28, 2022
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to put pressure on energyprices, which remain at extremely high levels. Barring a quick resolution of...