Our population projections for the UK now show it declining from the late 2030s, which will impact demand for real estate. As a result, we have...
United Kingdom | The squeeze on household finances intensifies
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Feb 4, 2022
This week brought a double whammy of bad news for UK consumers. The energy price cap will rise by 54% in April, with the Chancellor offering an...
United Kingdom | Hawkish MPC signals aggressive pace of rate hikes
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Feb 3, 2022
Alongside its decision to raise rates by 25bps to 0.5%, the MPC today sent an unmistakeably hawkish message, and we now expect further 25bp hikes in...
United Kingdom | A new era of weaker labour supply growth
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Jan 31, 2022
After a decade of consistently strong growth, UK labour supply has slumped since the onset of the pandemic and we expect only a partial recovery this...
United Kingdom | Fiscal space increases odds of some cost of living relief
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Jan 31, 2022
The lifting of Covid restrictions on January 27 adds to hopes that the worst of the pandemic is in the past and should boost consumer sentiment. But...
United Kingdom | A February rate hike is on a knife-edge
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Jan 27, 2022
Whether or not the MPC raises Bank Rate in February is close to a 50:50 call. We marginally favour a hike because Omicron’s economic damage appears...