The fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a brief but sharp hit from the Omicron outbreak have prompted us to cut our 2022 mainland GDP growth...
Russia | Market panic has passed, but recession is looming
Posted by Tatiana Orlova on Mar 30, 2022
Russia's GDP is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels until the early 2030s, according to our modelling. We expect Russia's economy to contract by...
Eurozone | Inflation to take a toll on consumer spending growth
Posted by Tomas Dvorak on Mar 29, 2022
Eurozone consumer spending was poised to drive growth in 2022, but increasingly consumers' underpinnings have become shaky. While we still expect a...
Eurozone | Markets are at the mercy of war
Posted by Angel Talavera on Mar 18, 2022
The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to dominate headlines and financial markets. The daily news flow coming out of the region is causing...
Europe | Russia's invasion of Ukraine is sending tremors through CEE
Posted by Mateusz Urban on Mar 15, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is being felt throughout the global economy, but few places are as exposed to its impact as the Central and Eastern...
MENA | Commodity price shock is a mixed blessing for MENA
Posted by Maya Senussi on Mar 14, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the evolving global response will be felt in the MENA economies mainly via the impact on commodity prices. Fuel...
Eurozone | EU faces tough trade-offs to phase out Russian gas
Posted by Daniel Kral on Mar 11, 2022
Following Russia's attack on Ukraine, the EU Commission has accelerated plans to phaseout Russian gas, with a two-thirds cut this year. To offset the...
Eurozone | A change of fortune across EU industries looms
Posted by Daniel Kral on Mar 1, 2022
Industrial performance across Europe has varied widely in the wake of the pandemic. The main laggards, Germany and France, have shaped the overall...
Turkey | Outlook sours after Russia invades Ukraine
Posted by Maya Senussi on Feb 25, 2022
Turkey will take a hit from the Russian invasion of Ukraine through three main channels – tourism, energy prices and financial market disruption –...
United Kingdom | Inflation set to peak higher and remain stickier
Posted by Andrew Goodwin on Feb 14, 2022
We now see UK CPI inflation peaking at 7.5% in April and remaining higher throughout 2022. But inflation should retreat next year, and we see the...