The GCC countries have entered a period of higher interest rates - their US$ currency pegs mean regional central banks mirror US Fed hikes. Our...
Turkey | Outlook sours after Russia invades Ukraine
Posted by Maya Senussi on Feb 25, 2022
Turkey will take a hit from the Russian invasion of Ukraine through three main channels – tourism, energy prices and financial market disruption –...
Turkey | Why the lira scheme may do more harm than good
Posted by Maya Senussi on Feb 2, 2022
Turkey’s unpredictable macro policies could leave the treasury with a sizeable bill stemming from FX-protected lira deposits. The baseline for public...
Latin America | Key themes 2022: stagflation risk will test central banks
Posted by Marcos Casarin on Dec 13, 2021
Latin America’s economy enters the new year on weakened footing. Our 2022 themes revolve around the inherent struggle between supporting a slowing...
Global | A framework for evaluating EM currencies’ fair value
Posted by Felipe Camargo on Aug 27, 2021
In our recent extended panel assessment on EM FX, we found most currencies have yet to recover ‘fair value’ after the March 2020 overshooting event....
Global | Ranking overall Covid damage: deaths, debt, GDP, markets
Posted by Gabriel Sterne on Apr 26, 2021
According to our pandemic-impact scorecard, EMs on average have been most afflicted, followed by frontier markets, with advanced economies suffering...
EM currencies gain as growth returns, but boom unlikely
Posted by Adam Slater on Apr 6, 2021
Emerging market currencies tend to move with the economic cycle. Consequently, after losing ground in 2020, they have recently shown signs of...
Global | Ten long-term themes for the global economy and markets
Posted by Gabriel Sterne on Mar 26, 2021
Following the terrible disappointment of the last decade, the era of lows – low GDP growth, inflation, real interest rates, asset returns, and...
EM financial conditions should stay favourable in 2021
Posted by Tamara Basic Vasiljev on Mar 10, 2021
Emerging market financial conditions remain very favourable in early 2021 even as inflation fears have grown and government bonds yields have crept...
Global | Why today’s inflation spike isn’t likely to last
Posted by Tamara Basic Vasiljev on Feb 26, 2021
Inflation is picking up across advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets (EMs), but the data suggests this will again prove temporary. We see no...