Despite the economic headwinds and much increased uncertainty stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine the ECB decided to accelerate its QE exit...
Eurozone | Durable goods will turn deflationary only in 2023
Posted by Oliver Rakau on Mar 7, 2022
Up until recently there had been growing signs that the forces that lifted durable goods prices last year had begun weakening or even reversing. But...
Eurozone | War in Ukraine will hit Europe’s economy
Posted by Angel Talavera on Feb 25, 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means that the economic impact of the conflict on Europe will be larger than we previously assumed. Our new baseline sees
Global | Russia invades Ukraine, damaging the global economy
Posted by Tatiana Orlova on Feb 24, 2022
Due to events over the past 24 hours, with Russia now intent on installing a “friendly” government in Ukraine, we have moved our global baseline in...
Eurozone | How the clash with Russia will affect Europe’s economy
Posted by Angel Talavera on Feb 23, 2022
The escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict will hit the eurozone economy mainly via higher energy prices giving another spur to inflation, which...
Russia and Ukraine | Recognition of rebel states won’t trigger harsh sanctions
Posted by Tatiana Orlova on Feb 22, 2022
On Monday 21 February, separatist leaders of the so-called Donetsk andLuhansk People’s Republics (LNR and DNR) called on Russia’s PresidentVladimir...
Italy | Rising sovereign yields will not derail debt dynamics
Posted by Nicola Nobile on Feb 15, 2022
The ECB's unexpectedly hawkish shift tone prompted a sizeable market reaction, with Italian 10-year bond yields rising 55bps, to 1.95%. However, we...
Eurozone | When forward guidance blurs guidance
Posted by Daniela Ordonez on Feb 14, 2022
In a week with few economic data releases, the latest ECB communicationsturned the week tumultuous. It appears that worries about inflation have...
Eurozone | Energy price spike means “higher for longer” inflation
Posted by Angel Talavera on Feb 11, 2022
Persistently high energy prices will cause eurozone inflation to be higher forlonger than we previously anticipated. Our new forecast envisions...
Eurozone weekly economic briefing | Strong January inflation brings swift ECB hawkish shift
Posted by Nicola Nobile on Feb 4, 2022
January inflation surprised on the upside, with the headline rate up to 5.1%, the highest since the 1990s. And while the energy component rose over...