High inflation in the UK and concerns about the effect of a tight jobs market on wages will likely push the MPC to raise rates to 1.25% by the end of...

Our forecast for Finland’s GDP growth is 2.3% this year and 1.5% in 2023, both unchanged from last month. The economy grew 0.7% q/q in Q4 2021,...

There are two factors explaining this. Omicron stifled activity in December 2021 and the opening part of the new year, leading us to downgrade our...

This week brought a double whammy of bad news for UK consumers. The energy price cap will rise by 54% in April, with the Chancellor offering an...

Alongside its decision to raise rates by 25bps to 0.5%, the MPC today sent an unmistakeably hawkish message, and we now expect further 25bp hikes in...

After a decade of consistently strong growth, UK labour supply has slumped since the onset of the pandemic and we expect only a partial recovery this...

The lifting of Covid restrictions on January 27 adds to hopes that the worst of the pandemic is in the past and should boost consumer sentiment. But...

We have lowered our mainland 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 4.2% to reflect the economic impact of the Omicron outbreak at the start of the...

Whether or not the MPC raises Bank Rate in February is close to a 50:50 call. We marginally favour a hike because Omicron’s economic damage appears...

Though the scale of December’s fall in retail sales came as a nasty surprise, it was not simply an Omicron story. We still think the Omicron hit to...