The fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a brief but sharp hit from the Omicron outbreak have prompted us to cut our 2022 mainland GDP growth...
Russia | Market panic has passed, but recession is looming
Posted by Tatiana Orlova on Mar 30, 2022
Russia's GDP is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels until the early 2030s, according to our modelling. We expect Russia's economy to contract by...
Eurozone | Inflation to take a toll on consumer spending growth
Posted by Tomas Dvorak on Mar 29, 2022
Eurozone consumer spending was poised to drive growth in 2022, but increasingly consumers' underpinnings have become shaky. While we still expect a...
Sweden | Fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine to be limited
Posted by Daniel Kral on Mar 22, 2022
We have lowered Sweden's growth for this year to 3.1% from 3.6% previously due to the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The main channel...
Eurozone | Markets are at the mercy of war
Posted by Angel Talavera on Mar 18, 2022
The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to dominate headlines and financial markets. The daily news flow coming out of the region is causing...
Europe | Russia's invasion of Ukraine is sending tremors through CEE
Posted by Mateusz Urban on Mar 15, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is being felt throughout the global economy, but few places are as exposed to its impact as the Central and Eastern...
Sweden | 2022 GDP growth forecast raised, but high inflation is a key downside risk
Posted by Daniel Kral on Feb 24, 2022
We have raised our full year 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.6% from 3.3% previously, due to the especially strong flash estimate for Q4 2021. The...
Finland | 2022 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 2.3% as activity remains solid
Posted by Daniel Kral on Feb 17, 2022
Our forecast for Finland’s GDP growth is 2.3% this year and 1.5% in 2023, both unchanged from last month. The economy grew 0.7% q/q in Q4 2021,...
Norway | Omicron's impact on the 2022 growth outlook appears to be mild
Posted by Rory Fennessy on Jan 28, 2022
We have lowered our mainland 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 4.2% to reflect the economic impact of the Omicron outbreak at the start of the...
Sweden | 2022 GDP growth forecast remains as expected despite Omicron
Posted by Daniel Kral on Jan 18, 2022
We have kept our growth forecast for this year unchanged at 3.2%, as we expect the impact of the Omicron wave to be mild. The latest data on...