US | Recovery Tracker starts 2021 at a six-month low

The US economy started the new year on the wrong foot, with the Recovery
Tracker falling 2.4ppts to 74.6 in the week ended Jan. 1. A worsening pandemic and seasonal weakness across mobility and employment brought the tracker to a six-month low.

What you will learn:

• Regional recoveries were mixed over the holidays, with 28 states experiencing a contraction.
• A brighter outlook for later in the year should not distract from deteriorating conditions in the near term.
• Bearing in mind these downside risks over coming months, we expect the 1.7% annualized advance in Q1 real GDP will be followed by a summer mini-boom.