Australia | Recovery Tracker dips at end of 2020, but is improving

Our recovery tracker indicator improved steadily through November and early December, almost reaching its pre-crisis level. However, the imposition of interstate border controls over the holiday season has caused the series to fall back. Assuming these restrictions are lifted in the near term, the recovery tracker should bounce back quickly.

What you will learn:

  • The improvement in the indicator has been driven by the labour demand indicator, which continues to beat our expectations. Further, COVID-19 cases remain at a low level. But the detection of more transmissible strains means intra-city and border restrictions have been, and will continue to be, deployed with small numbers of cases until the vaccine rollout is well underway.
  • Despite relatively low case numbers, increased travel over the holiday period and the emergence of more transmissible strains have seen state governments reimpose containment measures. Accordingly, mobility indicators have dipped, although this is in part due to expected seasonal variation, with fewer people travelling to work in December and January.
  • The flow of data on economic activity has been positive. Retail sales are growing quickly in Victoria as turnover catches up to the rest of the country. Job ads continue to increase at a steady pace, pointing to steady labour demand in early 2021. 

Topics: Australia, Coronavirus, Recovery Tracker

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