Philippines' resilient remittances to complement continued recovery
We forecast Philippines' remittances to grow 5.4% in 2022 following a 4.9% increase in 2021. A robust outlook for remittances underpins our above-trend GDP growth forecast of 7.5% and 7% in 2022 and 2023 respectively. What you will learn:
Remittances account for more than 10% of private consumption and robust inflows should boost household spending, and also bolster the recovery in residential investment.
We also expect remittances to help limit the current account deficit.
However, there are notable downside risks to our outlook, including another global Covid outbreak and prolonged supply chain disruptions. In particular, downside risks to US growth – the Philippines’ biggest remitter – need to be monitored closely.