London GVA down by 10% in 2020, with a possible 5% rise in 2021 | United Kingdom
With a second lockdown implemented across England for the month of November, we have revised our estimate for London’s GVA downwards, to show a fall of over 10% in 2020. Roughly half of that should be recovered in 2021.
What you will learn:
Inner London is probably holding up better than Outer London, thanks to more desk-based jobs;
But there are multiple weak indicators: business surveys, labour market data, travel data, sectoral information.
Brexit raises the possibility of a permanent hit to financial services that will long outlast the COVID-19 hit to retail and hospitality.